While the league has appeared to hit rock bottom with the loss of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Texas Christian, there are still embers of hope for survival.The official announcement has not been set, but a West Virginia official said Tuesday that the program “has applied” and “are accepted” to the Big 12, and the departure from the Big East is “solid.”
For the Big East to survive — as it did in 2003 when it was whittled to five members in football — it needs the conference shakeups to end so it can rebuild. Missouri will eventually announce that it is headed to the Southeastern Conference, and when that happens it will be replaced by West Virginia as the Big 12’s 10th team.
Big East officials met in Washington on Sunday with presidents and athletic directors from the programs that they are interested in courting for their 12-team model. The Big East was warmly received, and laid out potential possibilities that included West Virginia leaving. Those at the meeting included Central Florida, Houston and Southern Methodist, which will be added for all sports, and Boise State and Navy, which would be added for football only.
Air Force did not attend the meeting, but its athletic director, Hans Mueh, said Tuesday to “absolutely not” read anything into the absence. “Our thoughts haven’t changed,” he said. “We’re still waiting for things to settle down.”
Big East officials gave projections to the interested programs that showed that the league would retain its Bowl Championship Series automatic qualifying bid, even with the loss of West Virginia. Those projections are based on B.C.S. points added by Boise State’s annual high finishes, Central Florida’s top-25 finish last season and Houston’s projected high finish this year.
The way the B.C.S. automatic qualification works is that a team’s performance would count toward the Big East even if it were not in the conference at the time. (Cincinnati’s top-three finish in 2009 will help the league as well.)
The linchpin for expansion is Boise State, whose president, Robert Kustra, said that the automatic B.C.S. qualification is the key to luring Boise.
“If we make another move, it will be a move that will be made only when we can be convinced there is stability, and when we can be convinced there is at least some guarantee of automatic qualifier status,” Kustra said Monday.
No invitations were given out at the meeting, but officials were optimistic. A logical mile marker for announcements to be made will be the Big East’s annual presidents’ meeting on Tuesday.
“It was informative,” Navy Athletic Director Chet Gladchuk said of the meeting. “There were no decisions made. It was wait and see how the next round of shifting might occur. We haven’t been invited or made a commitment. We’re on the bubble observing.”
The latest team to emerge to replace West Virginia is Temple, which would offer the strongest combination of football and basketball programs. But for the first time, Memphis has appeared on the radar of league officials and coaches. Memphis may have the worst football program in the country, but the basketball-dominated Big East may consider the Tigers to boost its fortunes after losing perennial N.C.A.A. tournament teams Syracuse, West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
Conference USA has also expressed interest in Temple, which plays football in the Mid-American Conference. Temple declined to join Conference USA in July 2010. Villanova has expressed objections to Temple joining them in the Big East.
While Big East officials and athletic directors are confident they will rebuild, there are troubling lingering issues. Does Notre Dame risk further Big East defections? It’s reasonable to expect the Big 12 to grow when it renegotiates its ESPN deal, which expires after the 2015 football season. That would put Louisville at risk of getting seduced.
Notre Dame could find a soft landing for basketball and its nonrevenue sports in the Big 12, which would allow the Irish to retain football independence with a football scheduling agreement with the conference.
But there is something odd about the notion of Notre Dame, a school with strong East Coast ties, playing basketball and soccer in Lubbock, Tex.; Stillwater, Okla.; and Waco, Tex. Is football independence worth that much? Or would Notre Dame give up independence and become a full member of the Big Ten or the Atlantic Coast Conference, both of which would be eager to add them as full-time members.
If Notre Dame went to the A.C.C., that would essentially amount to a Big East North, with Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College and either UConn or Rutgers to go along with them.
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