Wisconsin Republicans to strip collective bargaining provisions from Gov

“If only there were precedent for the upper chamber monkeying around with the fiscal part of a bill to bypass the need for supermajority,” the Republican strategist Patrick Ruffini noted on Twitter last night.

Mr. Ruffini was referring, of course, to the decision by Wisconsin Republicans to strip collective bargaining provisions from Gov. Scott Walker’s budget proposal and vote on them separately, overcoming the need for the quorum that Democratic state senators had denied them by leaving the state. He was also referring to the the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the health care bill that Democrats passed by using a budget reconciliation procedure that bypassed the possibility of a filibuster.

Democrats paid a price for passing their health care bill, however, which polls had long shown was unpopular. Some of the 63 seats they lost in the House last November were an all but inevitable result of the poor economy, and reversion to the mean after two strong election cycles. My research, however — as well as that of several political scientists — suggests that the health care bill was also a factor in their defeat; Democrats who voted aye on the health care bill were considerably more likely to lose their seats, controlling for other factors.

The quality of polling on the Wisconsin dispute has not been terrific. But there’s a general consensus — including in some polls sponsored by conservative groups — that the Republican position was unpopular, probably about as unpopular as the Democrats’ position on health care. And the most unpopular part of their position — limiting collective bargaining rights — was the one that Republicans passed last night.

Nor is the bill likely to become any more popular given the circumstances under which it passed. Yes, there’s some hypocrisy in claims by Democrats that the Wisconsin Republicans used trickery to pass the bill — they did, after all, approve it with an elected majority, just as Democrats did on the Affordable Care Act. Nevertheless, polling suggested that Wisconsinites, by a two to one majority, expected a compromise on the bill, which this decidedly was not.

One question is how much this might hurt Republicans at the state level. As David Dayen notes, Democrats will have opportunities to fight back almost immediately, including in an April 5 election that could swing the balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, as well as in efforts to recall Republican state senators. Essentially all of Wisconsin outside of the Madison and Milwaukee metropolitan areas is very evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, so there could be a multiplier on even relatively small shifts in turnout or public opinion.

Although most of the risks to Republicans are to the downside, Mr. Walker does have one favorable precedent to cite: that of Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, who in 2005 signed an executive order ending collective bargaining for public-sector unions. Mr. Daniels’ popularity suffered initially before subsequently recovering along with Indiana’s economy.

Perhaps the more interesting question is what this could mean at the national level. As Mr. Ruffini noted, Republicans would rather lose in one state, Wisconsin, than all over the country, as Democrats did last year.

But there is no guarantee that the risk to Republicans will be confined to Wisconsin; national polls also suggest that the Republicans’ position is somewhat unpopular.

It is questionable how much voters outside the state will care about the Wisconsin debate a year from now, given other issues like the health of the national economy, the debate over the federal budget and the war in Afghanistan. Two groups that may have longer memories are two core constituencies in the Democratic base: union households and voters who describe themselves as liberal. A Pew poll conducted earlier this month found that while there was little overall change in opinion of unions — the public went from having a favorable view of them by a 45 to 41 plurality to a 47 to 39 plurality, not a statistically significant increase — there were exceptions among these groups.

In particular, the number of liberal Democrats who said they had a very favorable view of unions jumped to 32 percent from 14 percent. Meanwhile, the percentage of labor household voters who held a very favorable view increased to 45 percent from 27 percent. There was no comparable change among conservative voters; the number of people who said they had a very unfavorable view of unions was roughly unchanged, both among the country as a whole and among different subgroups.

Wisconsin, then, could motivate these groups to vote — something that they usually do fairly reliably, but did not in 2010. (The share of union household voters in the electorate dropped to 17 percent in 2010 from 21 percent in 2008, according to exit polls.) Although self-described liberals almost always vote Democratic, between 35 and 40 percent of labor households have voted Republican in recent elections. If that fraction decreases to something like 30 percent at the same time that union turnout increases, that would hurt Republicans by a couple of percentage points nationally.

And, if the Pew poll is right, Republicans will have no particular counterweight to this; the Wisconsin dispute has motivated the Democratic base more so than theirs.

That does not mean that the Republican base will not have other issues to motivate them in 2012 — they will almost certainly have plenty. But the likelihood of an “enthusiasm gap” of the sort that was present in 2010 has diminished.

9:40 pmOne could ask where are the counter demonstrations. But I think we all know the answer to that. Unless they are bused in by the Koch brothers, they don't bother showing up.

9:42 pmNate, you mentioned that people in Wisconsin expected there to be some compromises made before a bill was passed. One big difference between what happened in Wisconsin compared to the the healthcare bill in the US Congress is that the final bill in the latter had gone through a large amount of compromising, partly in hopes of getting some Republicans to vote for it, and partly in hopes of keeping enough Democrats on board (I know I'll never forget Ben Nelson's shenanigans!).

9:42 pmPretty good article, and if you've watched Fitzgerald's interview, he flat out said the reasoning behind this was to weaken Obama's 2012 bid.

Republicans, get ready to fight the parasites in 2012. We are fighting for solvency, justice for taxpayers, and bang for our tax bucks.

9:43 pmIt's heartening to know that the Wisconsin battle has NOT shifted conservative voters to a less favorable view of unions. This supports my view that most conservative voters are not crazy right wing zealots even though those they elect to office (Scott Walker, Rick Synder) very often are. Now, what is it going to take for conservatives voters to wake up and realize the catastrophic impact their elected politicians are having on our country?

From what we've seen first hand here, it is not only mobilizing, but it's energizing and rejuvenating the Democratic Party BIG TIME.

9:46 pmperhaps it is silly of me to refer you to a well known media figure like rachel maddow, but, although she tilts left, she is a very well informed and intelligent fact analyzer. above and beyond all the theatrics, one graphic did stand out to me, the map indicating the republican controlled states in which the same battle is already or about to be, played out. if the republicans pull this off as ham handedly as walker's merry band, as it would appear they have in michigan already, then this is no longer a one state issue, but a very threatening nationwide issue, especially in the northern tier that is the nexus of the action. have you taken that into account in your calculations?

9:46 pmIf the Democrats don't use this as a national rally point, they miss a great opportunity. This feels a bit like the "Saturday Night Massacre" in October 0f 1973, when President Nixon wanted to rid himself of Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox; Attorney General Elliot Richardson and deputy William Ruckelshaus resigned rather than do it, until finally Solicitor General Robert Bork fired Cox. Both incidents, then and now, strike me as rash and hasty moves in a political tinderbox.

9:46 pmUnion busting and health care reform are similar only when comparing parliamentary procedure. There is no comparison after that. I'm surprised at the shallow analysis; I expect better here.

9:46 pmIt seems to me that the Democratic state Senators in Wisconsin haven't lost anything from the GOP "coup" as long as they can deny the Governor his budget. Even if they can't stay outside the state forever, the potential quid pro quo is now clear: "If you want a budget, and if you now have a budget bill that is shorn of the collective bargaining restrictions, we'll vote for that shorn budget bill if you rescind your other bill."

The real question is whether this, or anything else, will revive the Democrat brand. The Obama brand seems stronger right now with the non-Republican electorate than any generic Democrat.

9:47 pmHealthcare reform significantly impacted (almost) every voter. After all the complexities are stripped out, the net effect is that the 3/4 or so of the population who paid for their own healthcare all along are now required to also pay for the healthcare of the other 1/4. It is hardly surprising that the adversly-affected 75% of voters punished the responsible legislators a lot more than the 25% beneficiaries rewarded them.

The new Wisconsin law significantly impacts only state employees. After all the complexities are stripped out, the net effect is that the 9/10 or so of the population who are not state employees will now pay less than otherwise for the services rendered by the 1/10 who are. Polls-that-validate-the-opinion-of-the-polsters (the only kind I've seen on this issue) be damned, I can hardly imagine this will be a negative for Republicans.

9:47 pmObama's completely alienated his base via last two years of triangulation (tax cuts, offshore oil drilling, Afghan., Guantan., no bully-pulpit support for WI union etc).

WI indeed may reinvigorate the D base. If so, the base completely will hold its nose and turn out again in '12 for Obama. But the base will only turn out as Obama is the lesser of two evils.

Obama missed a big chance to fire up his base with his noticeably silence towards WI unions. As Obama likes to quote in his speeches, what people remember most is the silence of their "friends" as opposed to the words of their enemies.

9:54 pmThe enthusiasm gap certainly seems to strongly favor the Democrats from my anecdotal perspective. Even before last night's lightning legislation the simple crowds which have maintained a presence at the Wisconsin state capitol have told that story. It takes a lot of effort and enthusiasm to keep thousands and sometimes tens of thousands of people demonstrating in and around the capitol for three solid weeks.

I've traveled to Madison for weekend rallies each of the last three weekends and have seen a handful of Walker supporters and Tea Partiers counter balanced by crowds of protesters in numbers usually seen only at nationally televised sporting events.

Please don't think that these are universally well-mobilized, rank and file union members. Although the presence of unions (both public and private) has been strong, I am not a union member or state worker. I don't even know any. And I have found the crowds at the capitol populated with many of my fellow concerned citizens.

All the effort to travel to Madison and march in solidarity (as well as sleet, snow and freezing temperatures) is a demonstration of people's commitment to opposing these issues - a commitment that, for many, represents an entirely new level of interest in WI politics. I sincerely hope that it will translate into a huge upset at the polls this April in our upcoming supreme court elections, this summer in the (now) inevitable first round of Senatorial recall elections and in two years.

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Wisconsin Dispute Could Mobilize Democratic BaseThere is a general consensus that the Republican position was unpopular - and there is no guarantee the risk to Republicans will be confined to Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Is a Swing State in More Ways Than OneThe dispute over public-sector pay and union rights is playing out in a state legislature where there are not many safe seats and many members of both parties must worry about facing the voters soon.